Morning News Brew 1.27.09

Iran will have enough enriched uranium to produce a nuclear weapon by the end of 2009. It will be interesting to see if President Obama’s plans to open a dialogue will indeed unclench the Iranian fist.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that only $26 Billion of the House’s proposed $355 stimulus package will be spent this year. Democrats criticize the CBO’s analysis and, accordingly, have removed the report from the CBO website. President Obama may want to remind the House leadership that “Change” has come, marked by a new openness and transparency in Washington.

Speaker Pelosi wanted $200 million of the stimulus money to fund birth control contraceptives. The President, wisely, opposes the earmark – which likely signals its legislative demise.

Minority Leader John Boehner is urging Republicans to vote against the Stimulus bill. If the bill fails, the fault lies with the Speaker, who has done little to cultivate and foster Republican support, rather than the President who has made significant attempts to garner opposition support.

NYU Professor and Economist Nouriel Roubini, the man who rightly predicted the catastrophic decline in housing and the concomitant financial crisis, argues that nationalization of major US banks is the only way to prevent massive bank failure.  Not good.

Confirmed… Now Pay Your Taxes and Get to Work

This just broke:  the U.S. Senate just confirmed Timothy Geithner by a 60-34 margin. 

Mr. Geithner can finally get to work, now that he has his confirmation (as well as his tax problems and immigration issues) behind him.

Let the stimulation  begin!

Morning News Brew

Some interesting and important news stories to start off your day.

Layoffs become trendy, major companies like Caterpillar, Pfizer, Home Depot and Sprint Nextel announce over 72,000 collective jobs cut today. Hopefully they’ll all be back on their feet sooner, rather than later.

It is not just the top law firms that are freezing salaries – the United States Congress may soon follow suit.

President Obama clears the way for individual states to make fuel emission standards stricter. Another olive branch to the liberal wing.

Democratic House leaders quietly fear that an ethics probe into U.S. Congressman Charlie Rangel’s financial affairs may create a distraction from their economic stimulus efforts. If by distraction the House leaders mean media attention, I seriously doubt it.

In an effort to create a bipartisan spirit in Washington, President Obama suggested that Republicans stop listening to Rush Limbaugh. Odd.

Home sales unexpectedly rise, comprised mostly of distressed property acquisitions. With layoffs mounting, I expect things to get much, much worse before they get better.

The Three Executive Orders Issued Today

Below I have included  links to the Executive Orders that President Obama issued today – for those not interested in the media’s spin, or mine. The text of the Executive Order pertaining to the closure of the Guantanamo detention facility follows the links:

REVIEW AND DISPOSITION OF INDIVIDUALS DETAINED AT THE GUANTÁNAMO BAY NAVAL BASE AND CLOSURE OF DETENTION FACILITIES

REVIEW OF DETENTION POLICY OPTIONS

ENSURING LAWFUL INTERROGATIONS

Day 2 President Obama Halts War Crimes Trials at Gitmo, Closes Detention Facility

President Obama is making his presence felt in Washington. Last night, US military judges accepted Mr. Obama’s request to immediately cease  all war crimes trials and Guantanamo Bay. This morning, the President ordered the closure of the US terrorist detention facility at Guantanamo Bay  by year’s end. President Obama also altered CIA detention and interrogation rules.

The Normalcy of America

 Much will be written about today.  And much ought to be written, for few days will be as historic as today. 

Senator Barack Obama ran on the idea of change.  Today, upon being  sworn in as America’s 44th President, President Barack Obama became the embodiment of that word. 

Far be it for me to add my full analysis of his speech or proposed policies less than 2 hours into his presidency.  Historians and former speechwriters are better qualified  to judge those aspects of this historic day than me. 

However, what struck me most about today, and what always strikes me about inauguration day, is the normalcy of it. 

Happy New Year

Happy New Year all! Thanks for continuing to check in. As is now obvious, over the past 2 months I took a much needed break from posting to cure my political fatigue and to think about this blog. I needed to think about how to continue making this blog incisive and relevant.

Refreshed and confident that I’ve figured things out, I’ll be posting on a more regular basis.

Please stop by and, of course, post any and all comments.
2009 is going to be great!

MM

Congratulations!

Congratulations Mr. President.  You are now our president.  Godspeed.

44?

Each presidential cycle I make predictions of who will win and by how much.  This election has been the most unpredictable I’ve ever seen or studied.  It’s difficult to make a single prediction.  Set forth below are three scenarios that I think are possible tomorrow.  Of course, the scenario I’ve titled “Likely” is what I think is the most probable outcome.

7 Days Until Tomorrow

With seven very important days left, Senator Barack Obama’s supporters are declaring victory and gearing up for a “new progessive era.” Senator John McCain and his supporters are putting all of their eggs in Mr. Obama’s wealth redistribution basket.  The question is, will portraying Mr. Obama’s economic policies as modern day Marxism help the McCain campaign?  Today’s Gallup daily tracking shows the race narrowing to 2 points, suggesting that the wealth/income redistribution argument is gaining some traction.  The key, of course, is not national polling data but key battleground state polls.  

Death Knell? Powell Endorses Senator Obama

This morning General Colin Powell endorsed Barack Obama while appearing on Meet the Press.   Gen. Powell said, “I think he is a transformational figure … He is a new generation coming … onto the world stage and on the American stage. And for that reason, I’ll be voting for Senator Barack Obama.”  This is a huge endorsement for Mr. Obama, not just because Gen. Powell is a Republican, but because he is wildly popular and very well respected by most Americans. 

Obama Widens Lead in Polls, McCain Poised for Comeback

New Poll figures show Senator Barack Obama has widened his lead over Senator John McCain to an average of 7.4 points.  Mr. Obama’s poll gains are no surprise given the steep losses in US (and global) markets last week.

Mr. McCain, however, is poised to recapture some of his lost ground this week as US markets settle and reverse course and the public’s attention returns to the presidential election. 

Observations from Debate #2: A Good Communicator Beat a Good Man

Senator John McCain entered tonight’s debate needing a decisive win.  The debate ’s format, the townhall meeting, played to his supposed strength.  His poll numbers were in a relative freefall, not unlike American and international stock markets.  He spent the weekend trying to stop the bleeding by attacking (and having his running mate, Governor Sarah Palin attack) Senator Barack Obama’s personal and professional associations with former domestic terrorists and other questionable characters.  Many thought tonight was his chance to turn the momentum.   That did not happen.

As Stock Market Drops, Obama’s Poll Numbers Rise

Senator Barack Obama continues his upward momentum as America’s stock market falls.  Using the Dow Jones Industrial Average as a proxy for the market, and using the RCP Average as a proxy for poll numbers we see the following:  On September 8, 2008 the DJIA was 11,510.74 and Mr. McCain led Mr. Obama 48.3 to 45.4.  Today, nearly one month later, the DJIA will close around 9,724.52 and Mr. Obama now leads Mr. McCain 49.3 to 43.3.  Thus, while the stock market declined 2000 points in the last month, Mr. Obama gained 4 points in the polls and Mr. McCain lost 6.  (See DJIA chart and Polls below)

Palin and Biden Exceed Expectations; Ifill Disappoints

The much anticipated debate has come and gone. The reviews are mixed. Generally everyone agrees that it was good, not great. It certainly was not the explosive, gaffe filled train wreck many predicted. Both Senator Biden and Governor Palin did better than expected – but then again, the expectation levels for both were low. Gwen Ifill, on the other hand, was terrible. Overall, I think the debate was forgettable, one that will be remembered for its pre-debate hype rather than its substance. The debate will have little near term impact  on the campaign.